Konami needs MGS4 to sell one million copies day one

Metal Gear Solid 4 is not only one of the biggest PS3 titles of 2008, it may be the last of a dying breed -- the third party exclusive. In the past, console manufacturers worked hard to secure such titles as a way to drive consumer adoption of their machines. However, with game development costs now ranging from $10-$50 million per title, it has become difficult for game studios to justify producing games for only one console -- in essence placing all their revenue eggs in one console basket.

While some other big name developers have jumped off Sony's exclusivity ship, Konami remains optimistic about their decision to stick it out. In an interview with Reuters, MGS4's assistant producer, Ryan Payton said, "We're telling our fans that if you want to play 'Metal Gear Solid 4', you have to buy a PS3. The PlayStation brand has always been good to us, and we're pretty bullish on the PS3."

But how 'bullish' can they really be? A year after its release, only two PS3 games have sold more than 1 million copies, a benchmark of financial success for a big-budget game. The 7-year-old PlayStation 2 had nearly 100 games sell more than a million copies.

Payton said MGS4 needs to sell over a million copies on the first day it goes on sale due to its costly production, but that may be a tough mark to hit given sluggish PS3 sales. To lend perspective, 50% of PS3 owners in the U.S. would have to buy MGS4 on day one for that to happen.

Sony claims the loss of third party exclusives isn't a big deal. "We understand publishers are needing to recoup their investment," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing for Sony. "From our perspective, as long as the games aren't going exclusive to other platforms, PS3 gamers are not actually losing anything."

Dille added that Sony is compensating by ramping up its own game production within 15 internal studios working on PlayStation titles, more than Microsoft and Nintendo combined.

Metal Gear Solid 4 Delayed...Again

Konami announced more bad news for Sony in a press release yesterday. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots has been moved from it's initial Q1 release window that would have seen it on store shelves before the end of March to Q2 2008. The delay means it likely won't be seen until the last week of June. While Konami says the delay will allow for "further improvements to the quality of the game and provide even greater enjoyment for more customers worldwide", I doubt that is much solace to Sony execs desperate for the inevitable spike in PS3 sales the game's release will bring.

Konami promises that pushing Metal Gear Solid 4 into the April-June release window will ensure it "meets everyone's expectations." That may be a tall order since, at this point, the expectations of Sony fans are so high you'd need a parachute to reach them.

5 "Solid" reasons why Metal Gear Solid 4 will come to Xbox 360

I recently posted a brief story about Ace Combat 6 no longer being a PS3 exclusive in which I flippently speculated that with all the PS3 "exclusives" that have been lost recently, how long will it be before MGS4 is announced for the XBox 360? I got flamed for my trouble, so I decided to do some more research and try to determine if there really is reason to believe MGS4 will come to the Xbox 360.

The more research I did, the clearer it became that Metal Gear Solid 4 might very well end up on the Xbox 360. Before you start flaming hear me out.

In response to my speculation, one of the aforementioned 'flamers' on Digg.com who goes by "patmos" said , "Hideo has already came out and officially stated that the MGS 4 will not be ported over. Its a fact. Its life."

Well, actually, that's not true, at least not that I could document and I did a lot of searching for such a statement. Hideo Kojima has only been quoted ONCE (that I could find) saying specifically that Metal Gear Solid 4 would not come to the Xbox 360, and that was in this article. That statement was made nearly a year ago. Since that time a lot of things have changed pretty dramatically and so, for several reasons, that statement has to be taken with a grain of salt.

#1) Lack of PS3 Demand - Konami's growing trepidation over the PS3's small installed user base has fueled the fire of MGS to 360 speculation since that quote from Kojima-San. At that time, noone knew that Sony was going to have such a hard time getting people to buy PS3's. It was widely assumed that the PS3 would sell out everywhere for quite some time after launch. Of course since that time we know the truth that Sony is having a very hard time moving PS3's world wide. Despite the fact that many outlets are reporting the PS3 as having the largest initial European launch ever, the fact is they still haven't managed to sell out their allottment of only 220,000 units in the region. That, even after making the European market wait an extra six months for their PS3s; a move that should have boosted demand, not lessened it.

#2) PS3 Production Problems - During an interview with EA's Larry Probst, Newsweek reported the PS3 is going to have production issues through 2008. Assuming demand for the PS3 does in fact pick up, will Sony even be able to take advantage of it in time? The father of the Playstation brand, Ken Kutaragi doesn't seem to think so. In a recent interview with MCV where he laughed off competition from Microsoft and Nintendo in one breathe, in the next he conceded that Sony is still struggling with the production of the PS3’s Blu-Ray drive saying, “Right now, it is an issue, because we can’t manufacture enough blue laser diodes for our PlayStation 3s." Blu-ray diode production problems pushed back the PS3's European launch to March 2007. And while it did launch on time in Japan and North America, its day-one inventory was drastically cut from 2 million units to just 100,000 units in Japan and 400,000 units in the US and Canada.

#3) Plausible Deniability - The fact is Konami has NEVER flat out said Metal Gear Solid 4 is not coming to the Xbox 360. When asked to clear up the speculation several months ago, they did anything but. They gave only an open-ended statement "Konami has no plans to bring Metal Gear Solid 4 to the Xbox 360 at this time." As long as the door is left cracked open like that, Konami can always announce a 360 port without losing face. If they knew for a fact that they were absolutely not releasing such a high-profile game on the 360, they would just end the speculation, but they have clearly chosen not to.

#4) Hideo Kojima doesn't write the checks - Make no mistake, Hideo Kojima does NOT have final say on whether or not MGS4 comes to the Xbox 360, that is completely up to Konami, and it will be a purely financial decision.

#5) Kojima-San is eyeing the 360 and PC - Kojima-San has repeatedly said that he is eager to develop on the Xbox 360 and PC.

From his last GamePro interview:

GamePro: "Is MGS4 still planned as an exclusive PS3 game? Do you have any interest in Xbox 360 development?"

Kojima: "Well, yes, I do have strong interest in creating something for the Xbox 360. In the US and Europe, it is selling, and I think it will sell a lot this year as well. I'm a fan of Gears of War as well, it's very interesting. Frankly speaking, I want to create something on the PC. It's a multi-platform [format]. I've been regularly studying work on the PC anyways, and I want to provide something as a world-wide platform because of the consequences with timing on the PlayStation platforms, MGS4 is actually for the PS3 only so far."

Unlike his statement from a year ago, he now leaves the door ajar for the possibility of MGS4 on the 360.

Conclusion - So, is Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriot coming to the Xbox 360? Obviously that can't be definitively answered at this time, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict that it will. There are just too many reasons to believe, and not enough reasons not to. It won't be two years after the PS3 release either, it will be no more than six months after the PS3 version.

Ok, now you can start flaming!

It should be noted that I personally own both a PS3 and an Xbox 360 and I think they both have their own strengths and weaknesses. I don't care which one sells more consoles as long as I get good games for both of them!