Konami needs MGS4 to sell one million copies day one

Metal Gear Solid 4 is not only one of the biggest PS3 titles of 2008, it may be the last of a dying breed -- the third party exclusive. In the past, console manufacturers worked hard to secure such titles as a way to drive consumer adoption of their machines. However, with game development costs now ranging from $10-$50 million per title, it has become difficult for game studios to justify producing games for only one console -- in essence placing all their revenue eggs in one console basket.

While some other big name developers have jumped off Sony's exclusivity ship, Konami remains optimistic about their decision to stick it out. In an interview with Reuters, MGS4's assistant producer, Ryan Payton said, "We're telling our fans that if you want to play 'Metal Gear Solid 4', you have to buy a PS3. The PlayStation brand has always been good to us, and we're pretty bullish on the PS3."

But how 'bullish' can they really be? A year after its release, only two PS3 games have sold more than 1 million copies, a benchmark of financial success for a big-budget game. The 7-year-old PlayStation 2 had nearly 100 games sell more than a million copies.

Payton said MGS4 needs to sell over a million copies on the first day it goes on sale due to its costly production, but that may be a tough mark to hit given sluggish PS3 sales. To lend perspective, 50% of PS3 owners in the U.S. would have to buy MGS4 on day one for that to happen.

Sony claims the loss of third party exclusives isn't a big deal. "We understand publishers are needing to recoup their investment," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing for Sony. "From our perspective, as long as the games aren't going exclusive to other platforms, PS3 gamers are not actually losing anything."

Dille added that Sony is compensating by ramping up its own game production within 15 internal studios working on PlayStation titles, more than Microsoft and Nintendo combined.